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You might hope that charter schools would do better, relative to their students' non-school expectations, than regular public schools. That's kind of the point of them. But if they do, this data doesn't explain how. Predicting test scores from just lunch subsidies works almost as well for even the much smaller sample of charter schools, and the fancier formula (this time using just SATs and graduation rates, since several of the charter schools are just high schools) using the same set of non-school factors as with the regular districts also works just about as well for charter schools. The variation is a little larger, but it evens out on average. In this chart the left segment is charter schools, the right is normal districts.

In addition, 16 normal districts beat the best charter school, and 44 beat the second-best.
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